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Posts Tagged ‘transparency’

Week of November 16, 2009 – Health Care Reform

Thursday, November 19th, 2009

Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., second right, with Sens. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., left, Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., second left, and Dick Durbin, D-Ill., right, speaks to the media about the Democratic health care bill on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2009, in Washington.

Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., second right, with Sens. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., left, Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., second left, and Dick Durbin, D-Ill., right, speaks to the media about the Democratic health care bill on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2009, in Washington.

Hewitt prepared a report at the request of the Business Round Table to evaluate health care reform through the lens of the private sector and to project the likely effect of proposed legislative changes on employer health care costs.

This report addresses four key questions:

  • Of the reform initiatives currently being considered that intend to curb the rate of health care cost growth, which ones are likely to have a significant impact on the health care economy at large?
  • What missing ingredients should be added to current proposals to enhance their potential to reduce future cost trends?
  • What are the risks that could undermine the realization of these cost savings?
  • What can be done longer-term to restructure the current health care delivery system in order to reduce annual health care cost trend to a sustainable rate, such as the overall rate of GDP growth (approximately 4% per year)?

Current Legislation Provides Opportunities for Savings, Risks Could Jeopardize Cost Reductions *

Risks identified in the report include:

  • Delayed or watered-down implementations;
  • Future legislative reversals of potential cost-saving provisions;
  • Continuation of the practice and related costs of defensive medicine and the cost to providers of malpractice insurance;
  • Failure to implement a strong individual mandate to minimize cost increases in the health insurance exchange plans due to adverse selection;
  • Unintended consequences as health plans take steps to keep the cost of health coverage below the threshold for the proposed excise tax on high-cost plans or as employers are unable to live within the cap as it gets relatively tighter over time;
  • Increases in the cost of health care to individuals from changes to flexible spending arrangements or actions that discourage consumer-engaged decision making; and
  • Cost shifting to the private sector from reductions in federal reimbursements to providers and from a public plan option if included.

Federal *

The battle over health care reform entered a new phase after a critical Senate vote Saturday night. Senators cleared the way for floor debate by a vote of 60 to 39. They needed at least 60 votes to prevent a filibuster.  “We can only see the finish line; we have not yet crossed it,” said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. “The road ahead will be the toughest stretch.”

The republicans are promising the road will be a long one.

“The Senate’s not like the House,” said Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. “They had three votes on one day and it was over.”

Senate debates can take weeks. Reid will need 60 votes again to actually pass the final version of the bill. It could look very different after senators add amendments.

And he’s got to win over some of his own party to do it.

“If there are a whole host of other items that are the same as they are right now, I wouldn’t vote to get it off the floor,” said Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., a centrist Democrat who has pushed back against the reform effort.

States

NEW YORK: The legislature passed a bill that prohibits all subrogation (collateral source or third party) recoveries by an insurer for medical expenses. The former collateral source rule eliminated the windfall of double recoveries by plaintiffs who receive medical benefits and win recoveries from defendant payments. The old rule of law allowed insurance companies to offset potential premium increases to consumers by authorizing them to recover medical costs from payments made to an injured plaintiff from a jury award or settlement. With that option no longer available, insurance premiums in New York will be further stressed.

In addition, Governor Paterson and the hospital sector are proposing that the current Patient Services Assessment (PSA) of 9.63 percent be increased by 0.25 percent to generate an additional $54 million as part of the Governor’s second Deficit Reduction plan (DRP) for 2009. The hospitals are advocating for this insurance tax increase to offset some of the governor’s proposed Medicaid cuts on hospitals. The $800 in insurance taxes adopted this year already includes an increase in the PSA, and the new proposal would make the latest increase retroactive to November 1, clearly not included in premium increases for 2010. The legislature is set to return to the Capitol for two more special session days to address the DRP.

NEW JERSEY: The governor has directed state departments and agencies to collectively cut $400 million from the state budget due to state revenue collection falling well short of budget projections. Furthermore, the Governor requested that the legislature not pass any spending bills during the upcoming “lame duck” session. This nearly half-a-billion dollar shortfall, coupled with a projected $8 billion budget deficit for next fiscal year, puts the state in dire fiscal straits. With options limited for making up the lost revenue, businesses operating in the state will be closely monitoring this developing situation.

ILLINOIS: A leader in the Senate has pre-filed a bill to amend Illinois’ HIPAA law with a proposal that group and individual health insurance carriers be prohibited from imposing any pre-existing condition exclusions. Current limitations imposed by state law would be deleted. While the issue is being discussed on the federal level, this issue has had a lot of traction with both House and Senate Insurance Committee members for the past six months. As amended, the current proposal may not meet current federal HIPAA requirements. The bill will not be considered until January 2010.

MICHIGAN: The Office of Financial and Insurance Regulation (OFIR) has scheduled a hearing on November 23 to review Blue Care Network’s proposal to buy Physicians Health Plan. In late September, Blue Care Network, a Michigan nonprofit HMO, filed a statement with OFIR regarding its intention to acquire control or merge with Physicians Health Plan of Mid-Michigan-Family Care and PHPMM Insurance Company. OFIR has 90 days to review the statement. Various parties have requested that OFIR conduct public hearings before making a decision on the sale, due to concerns raised regarding the size of the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan.

OKLAHOMA: Two Republican State Senators are sounding the alarm bell regarding both U.S. House and Senate versions of health care reform, charging that either would devastate at least one new health care facility in Oklahoma City and cost Oklahoma County and the surrounding area more than 500 jobs. State Sen. Jim Reynolds and Sen. Harry Coates say both bills would devastate many top-quality health care facilities, including   Oklahoma Heart Hospital’s $98 million South Campus, which is set to open soon.

The bills would financially undermine the facility by denying the facility federal reimbursement for services such as Medicare and Medicaid. A joint venture of Mercy Hospital, Midwest City Regional and a group of local physicians, the facility will serve much of southeast Oklahoma County along with hundreds of active-duty military and veterans. Both Sen. Coates and Sen. Reynolds say they will ask Gov. Brad Henry to intercede quickly to remove the onerous provisions.

UTAH: The Department of Insurance is circulating a draft bill to amend the state’s uniform electronic standards law to require insurers to provide coverage eligibility and detailed coordination of benefits information to physicians. Large payors will be submitting comments, including the fact that an insurer is not the repository of each member’s applicable insurance coverage information and that a July 1, 2010, effective date does not allow sufficient time for implementation.

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The Man Who Predicted the Depression

Thursday, November 12th, 2009

Ludwig von Mises was snubbed by economists world-wide as he warned of a credit crisis in the 1920s. We ignore the great Austrian at our peril today.

Ludwig von MisesMises’s ideas on business cycles were spelled out in his 1912 tome “Theorie des Geldes und der Umlaufsmittel” (“The Theory of Money and Credit”). Not surprisingly few people noticed, as it was published only in German and wasn’t exactly a beach read at that.

Taking his cue from David Hume and David Ricardo, Mises explained how the banking system was endowed with the singular ability to expand credit and with it the money supply, and how this was magnified by government intervention. Left alone, interest rates would adjust such that only the amount of credit would be used as is voluntarily supplied and demanded. But when credit is force-fed beyond that (call it a credit gavage), grotesque things start to happen.

Ordinarily, any random spikes in credit would be quickly absorbed by the system—the pricing errors corrected, the half-baked investments liquidated, like a supple tree yielding to the wind and then returning. But when the government holds rates artificially low in order to feed ever higher capital investment in otherwise unsound, unsustainable businesses, it creates the conditions for a crash. Everyone looks smart for a while, but eventually the whole monstrosity collapses under its own weight through a credit contraction or, worse, a banking collapse.

The system is dramatically susceptible to errors, both on the policy side and on the entrepreneurial side. Government expansion of credit takes a system otherwise capable of adjustment and resilience and transforms it into one with tremendous cyclical volatility.

“Theorie des Geldes” did not become the playbook for policy makers. The 1920s were marked by the brave new era of the Federal Reserve system promoting inflationary credit expansion and with it permanent prosperity. The nerve of this Doubting-Thomas, perma-bear, crazy Kraut! Sadly, poor Ludwig was very nearly alone in warning of the collapse to come from this credit expansion. In mid-1929, he stubbornly turned down a lucrative job offer from the Viennese bank Kreditanstalt, much to the annoyance of his fiancée, proclaiming “A great crash is coming, and I don’t want my name in any way connected with it.”

We all know what happened next. Pretty much right out of Mises’s script, overleveraged banks (including Kreditanstalt) collapsed, businesses collapsed, employment collapsed. The brittle tree snapped. Following Mises’s logic, was this a failure of capitalism, or a failure of hubris?

Mises’s solution follows logically from his warnings. You can’t fix what’s broken by breaking it yet again. Stop the credit gavage. Stop inflating. Don’t encourage consumption, but rather encourage saving and the repayment of debt. Let all the lame businesses fail—no bailouts.

Mises started getting some much-deserved respect once “Theorie des Geldes” was finally published in English in 1934. It is unfortunate that it required such a disaster for people to take heed of what was the one predictive, scholarly explanation of what was happening.

But then, just Mises’s bad luck, along came John Maynard Keynes’s tome “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” in 1936. Keynes was dapper, fresh and sophisticated. He even wrote in English! And the guy had chutzpah, fearlessly fighting the battle against unemployment by running the currency printing press and draining the government’s coffers.

He was the anti-Mises. So what if Keynes had lost his shirt in the stock-market crash. His book was peppered with fancy math (even Greek letters) and that meant rigor, modernity. To add insult to injury, Mises wasn’t even refuted by Keynes and his ilk. He was ignored.

Fast forward 70-some years, during which we saw Keynesianism’s repeated disappointments, the end of the gold standard, persistent inflation with intermittent inflationary recessions and banking crises, culminating in Alan Greenspan’s “Great Moderation” and a subsequent catastrophic collapse in housing and banking. Where do we find ourselves? At a point of profound insight gained through economic logic, trial and error, and objective empiricism? Or right back where we started?

With interest rates at zero, monetary engines humming as never before, and a self-proclaimed Keynesian government, we are back again embracing the brave new era of government-sponsored prosperity and debt. And, more than ever, the system is piling uncertainties on top of uncertainties, turning an otherwise resilient economy into a brittle one.

How curious it is that the guy who wrote the script depicting our never ending story of government-induced credit expansion, inflation and collapse has remained so persistently forgotten. Must we sit through yet another performance of this tragic tale?

via Mark Spitznagel: The Man Who Predicted the Depression – WSJ.com.  Mr. Spitznagel is the founder and chief investment officer of the hedge fund Universa Investments LP, based in Santa Monica, Calif.

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